Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x34a6…785e crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$204 (+23%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$161
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 66% +6.8%
≤30d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 66% +6.8%
≤90d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 66% +6.8%
all 32 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 66% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 66% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 62% -3.4%
15% -18.0% 38% -12.8%
20% -26.0% 22% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $114 +$108 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$27 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$5 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $222 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $133 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records