Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a6…5708 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$370 (-6%) realized −$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%96W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,738
7 days−$1,728
14 days−$1,728
30 days−$1,705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,555
other 1% +$25
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.3% -25.1% 57% 57% -46.0%
≤30d 40 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 62% -43.0%
≤90d 132 -4.8% -13.8% 70% 68% -32.2%
all 136 -4.3% -13.4% 71% 68% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 68% -32.1%
10% -21.7% 55% -38.6%
15% -29.3% 32% -44.5%
20% -36.2% 12% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$61 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses96 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage118d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $1,996 +$245 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $1,391 −$1,377 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $487 −$480 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1,335 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1,115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $880 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $487 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $123 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $81 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 37h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records