Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a1…7622 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,455 (-12%) realized −$569 · open −$886
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$932
14 days+$759
30 days+$759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$197
other 20% +$73
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.5% -21.7% 58% 42% -0.7%
≤30d 36 -12.5% -20.8% 58% 44% -2.6%
≤90d 36 -12.5% -20.8% 58% 44% -2.6%
all 36 -12.5% -20.8% 58% 44% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -2.6%
10% -28.4% 28% -11.9%
15% -35.3% 17% -20.4%
20% -41.7% 17% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$146 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,145
Realized−$569
Unrealized−$886
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions14
Markets (closed)36 / 50
History coverage19d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 60¢ $256 $238 −$18 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $161 $184 +$24 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $160 $136 −$24 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $85 $110 +$25 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $112 $104 −$8 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 70¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $83 $66 −$16 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $53 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $500 $5 −$495 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $370 $2 −$368 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $201 +$61 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $893 +$106 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,024 +$1,251 +122%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $170 +$52 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $211 +$134 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $278 +$45 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $850 +$530 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $160 +$10 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $302 −$47 -16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $385 +$5 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $307 −$158 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $340 +$40 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $197 +$63 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 +$36 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $370 +$127 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 +$10 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $461 +$39 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $386 +$12 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 −$9 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $279 +$21 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $205 +$230 +112%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $205 +$144 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $142 −$43 -30%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $21 +$16 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $111 +$21 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $999 16m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 28m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $893 35m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $745 36m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $505 37m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $120 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $1 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $15 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $882 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $6 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1,024 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 8¢ $164 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $58 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $37 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $21 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $79 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $18 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,144.85 · official $1,143.85 (match) · 381 history records