Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x349f…e388 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$8
other 22% +$5
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$22
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 8% -10.8%
≤90d 39 +8.6% -1.8% 31% 18% -8.1%
all 50 +6.7% -3.5% 30% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 14% -9.1%
10% -12.7% 12% -17.8%
15% -21.2% 10% -25.8%
20% -28.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage591d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey May 21 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$6 +165%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $9 +$4 +48%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $39 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $214 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $349 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,225 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $612 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 25d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey BUY Jersey 90¢ $5 27d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey BUY Jersey 90¢ $11 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $70 29d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cincinnati Reds 39¢ $5 31d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 34d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 34d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $69 35d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $69 35d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $76 39d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $76 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 227 history records