Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3499…07ed politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$43 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% +$29
other 5% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
≤30d 3 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 67% -6.3%
≤90d 5 +14.5% +3.6% 80% 60% -4.5%
all 5 +14.5% +3.6% 80% 60% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 60% -4.5%
10% -6.3% 40% -13.7%
15% -15.4% 0% -22.0%
20% -23.7% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage77d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $166 $170 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$42 +32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $708 −$32 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $187 +$26 +14%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $99 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $172 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $131 4h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $131 4h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $533 14d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $575 14d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 57¢ $577 14d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $212 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 88¢ $213 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $187 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $186 17d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $191 25d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $191 25d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 26d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 60¢ $488 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $83 35d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 55¢ $129 35d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 76¢ $129 42d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 57¢ $8 55d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 57¢ $92 55d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $100 55d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $99 61d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 64¢ $99 61d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 59¢ $91 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.83 · official $169.83 (match) · 24 history records