trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 16 | +4.1% | -5.9% | 44% | 44% | +2.9% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -8.2% | -17.0% | 40% | 40% | -23.8% |
| all | 36 | -38.5% | -44.3% | 25% | 25% | -73.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -44.3% | 25% | -73.0% |
| 10% | -49.6% | 25% | -75.6% |
| 15% | -54.5% | 22% | -78.0% |
| 20% | -59.0% | 22% | -80.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $513 | $330 | −$183 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca | Jun 15 | $272 | +$78 | +29% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jun 15 | $226 | +$224 | +99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $56 | −$10 | -17% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $67 | +$168 | +250% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 11 | $58 | −$55 | -96% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 11 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $491 | −$304 | -62% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | Jun 11 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 11 | $32 | −$16 | -50% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 11 | $106 | −$58 | -55% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 10 | $182 | +$185 | +102% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 | Jun 10 | $104 | +$100 | +97% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $104 | +$118 | +114% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | Jun 06 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 05 | $153 | +$83 | +54% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 31 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $90 | +$63 | +70% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 27 | $312 | −$312 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | May 25 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Jan 04 | $860 | −$860 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? | Jan 04 | $111 | −$111 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Jan 04 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jan 04 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 04 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Jan 04 | $2,292 | −$2,086 | -91% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Oct 30 | $121 | −$71 | -59% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jul 15 | $599 | −$588 | -98% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jul 15 | $2,072 | −$1,941 | -94% |
| Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? | May 08 | $143 | −$143 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | May 08 | $203 | −$203 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | May 08 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | May 08 | $391 | −$391 | -100% |
| Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | May 08 | $591 | −$591 | -100% |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | May 08 | $132 | +$267 | +203% |
| Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Dec 08 | $488 | −$395 | -81% |