Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3495…282e crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,819 (-4%) realized −$2,846 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%51W / 87L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,340
7 days−$524
14 days−$751
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,098
politics 2% −$146
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -43.8% -49.1% 19% 19% -16.3%
≤30d 42 -45.7% -50.9% 19% 19% -18.8%
≤90d 42 -45.7% -50.9% 19% 19% -18.8%
all 138 -13.1% -21.3% 37% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 35% -12.7%
10% -28.9% 33% -21.1%
15% -35.7% 28% -28.7%
20% -42.0% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$639) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$485 vs −$310 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2,846
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses51 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage165d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 3¢ 8¢ $15 $42 +$27 (+183%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $158 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $489 +$147 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $150 +$350 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $400 +$1,528 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $116 +$379 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $376 −$370 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $434 −$420 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $229 +$372 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $530 +$470 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $639 +$575 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $117 −$111 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $121 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $278 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $296 −$290 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $129 −$122 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $68 −$64 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$89 +99%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 21 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 14 $200 −$197 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 14 $494 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 14 $147 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.49 · official $42.49 (match) · 1864 history records