Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3493…50fb other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$146 (-2%) realized −$133 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$6,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$97
politics 4% −$118
sports 1% +$22
culture 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -10.7% -19.2% 30% 30% -20.9%
≤90d 11 -18.8% -26.5% 27% 27% -37.8%
all 14 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 36% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 36% -26.1%
10% -17.1% 36% -33.2%
15% -25.1% 36% -39.7%
20% -32.4% 36% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$33 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$6,400
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage148d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 68¢ 68¢ $5,389 $5,391 +$2 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $994 $973 −$22 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $204 −$85 -42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $32 +$31 +95%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $85 −$3 -3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $69 −$15 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $13 −$9 -71%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 31 $42 +$30 +71%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $18 −$18 -97%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 31 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 18 $75 +$39 +52%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $16 +$30 +187%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 30 $15 −$2 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 68¢ $73 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $505 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 69¢ $3,096 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $457 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 68¢ $2,362 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 5d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 72¢ $36 5d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 69¢ $21 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime $12 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 13¢ $6 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $38 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $20 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $20 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $18 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $80 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 19d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 42¢ $63 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 21¢ $32 20d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $79 20d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,400.31 · official $6,400.31 (match) · 139 history records