Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3491…0242 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+4%) realized +$181 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$1
14 days+$40
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$110
sports 11% +$15
crypto 3% +$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 22% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -3.0% -12.3% 66% 18% -6.9%
≤90d 56 -3.0% -12.3% 66% 18% -6.9%
all 56 -3.0% -12.3% 66% 18% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 18% -6.9%
10% -20.7% 7% -15.8%
15% -28.3% 4% -24.0%
20% -35.4% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage29d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$7 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$22 +7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $250 −$51 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$3 +2%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 +$13 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $150 +$7 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $210 +$33 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $35 −$3 -10%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $123 $0 +0%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $124 +$5 +4%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $48 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $150 +$22 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +5%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $232 +$61 +26%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 −$3 -14%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $95 +$20 +21%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $199 +$12 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $189 +$9 +5%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $95 −$5 -6%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $50 −$49 -99%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $30 −$3 -11%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $97 +$10 +11%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $266 −$22 -8%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $39 −$4 -11%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $145 +$8 +6%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $165 +$18 +11%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $249 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $25 −$2 -9%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 May 26 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 84¢ $109 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $48 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 60¢ $25 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $25 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 62¢ $26 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $25 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 40¢ $76 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 40¢ $50 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 39¢ $49 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 39¢ $50 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 39¢ $49 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $50 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $50 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $51 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $75 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $49 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $107 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.80 · official $24.80 (match) · 359 history records