Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x348f…8378 weather 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$198 (-11%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%67W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$115
14 days−$206
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -3.4% -12.6% 77% 27% -17.0%
≤30d 95 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 24% -20.9%
≤90d 95 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 24% -20.9%
all 95 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 24% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 24% -20.9%
10% -23.8% 20% -28.5%
15% -31.1% 15% -35.4%
20% -37.9% 8% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses67 / 28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)95 / 104
History coverage24d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 60¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$107 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$9 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$16 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $35 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.25 · official $108.25 (match) · 332 history records