Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
34 0x348c…c8ef sports 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$725 (-2%) realized −$814 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%228W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day199.9pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,705now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$632
7 days−$1,248
14 days−$1,051
30 days−$1,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,179
sports 30% +$400
crypto 1% −$204
world 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 405 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 38% -13.3%
≤90d 405 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 38% -13.3%
all 405 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 38% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 30% -21.6%
15% -28.0% 24% -29.1%
20% -35.0% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$32 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4,705
Realized−$814
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses228 / 177
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions70
Markets (closed)405 / 475
History coverage8d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day199.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $390 $391 +$1 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 96¢ $360 $369 +$9 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $334 $325 −$10 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 96¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 34¢ 34¢ $237 $237 +$1 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $179 $175 −$4 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $160 $160 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 98¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $130 $137 +$7 (+6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $134 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 50¢ $111 $122 +$11 (+10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 84¢ $116 $121 +$5 (+4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 88¢ $117 $119 +$2 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $110 $110 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 90¢ 90¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 93¢ 92¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Japan 96¢ 97¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 84¢ $32 $65 +$34 (+105%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $62 $63 +$2 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 81¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 90¢ $34 $53 +$19 (+56%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 70¢ $23 $51 +$28 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$4 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $17 +$74 +442%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 −$174 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $294 −$229 -78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 −$97 -73%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 +$6 +38%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $467 −$59 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 +$30 +180%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$17 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$21 +124%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $434 −$205 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $568 −$36 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $649 +$15 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$17 +101%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 −$32 -36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$12 +18%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $180 +$41 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 −$16 -48%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $22 +$59 +262%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $48 −$16 -34%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $45 +$11 +24%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$26 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $134 −$88 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$50 +62%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$14 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $226 +$15 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $17 +$21 +129%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 −$7 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$32 -66%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $28 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $16 53m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $16 57m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 45¢ $16 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $24 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $23 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $17 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $16 3h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 96¢ $26 3h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 96¢ $20 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $17 3h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 96¢ $20 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $20 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $16 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $21 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $17 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $16 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $25 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $16 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $17 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $19 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $17 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $17 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $16 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 94¢ $30 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,705.26 · official $4,705.36 (match) · 1795 history records