Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x348c…98fc world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$4
politics 25% +$1
other 21% −$1
economics 6% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 11% 0% -11.6%
all 36 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage272d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $29 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $5 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $4 +$1 +22%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30? Oct 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $29 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $29 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $32 37h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $5 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $5 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $32 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $3 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $28 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 31d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $5 216d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $15 216d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 261d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $20 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records