Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3487…9eac world 81 markets active 11h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$4
other 23% −$1
politics 17% +$1
sports 15% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 +49.5% +35.2% 42% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 76 +16.9% +5.8% 30% 3% -9.4%
all 80 +14.9% +4.0% 32% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -6.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -15.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -23.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage484d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $96 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $36 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $58 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $34 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $33 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $28 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $4 +$1 +21%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $93 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 27 $3 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $3 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 44h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $37 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $40 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $40 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records