Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3486…43dd sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$193 (-32%) realized −$222 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$24
other 27% −$144
world 8% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -54.6% -59.0% 23% 23% -43.3%
≤30d 13 -54.6% -59.0% 23% 23% -43.3%
≤90d 13 -54.6% -59.0% 23% 23% -43.3%
all 13 -54.6% -59.0% 23% 23% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 23% -43.3%
10% -62.9% 23% -48.8%
15% -66.5% 23% -53.7%
20% -69.8% 15% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 32¢ $35 $58 +$23 (+66%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 60¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$63 -77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $37 $0 -1%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $36 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $37 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $37 23h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 26h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $40 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $40 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $38 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.33 · official $98.93 · 25 history records