Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x3486…b78e crypto 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$988 (-3%) realized −$1,002 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%93W / 103L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$45
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$698
sports 26% −$198
other 10% −$64
world 10% −$28
finance 6% −$16
culture 1% +$5
tech 1% +$4
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +77.1% +60.2% 100% 100% +60.2%
≤30d 6 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 50% +12.4%
≤90d 45 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 51% -12.2%
all 196 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 23% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 23% -12.0%
10% -22.6% 17% -20.4%
15% -30.1% 10% -28.1%
20% -36.9% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$1,002
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses93 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)196 / 201
History coverage236d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 55¢ 87¢ $39 $61 +$23 (+59%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $36 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $54 +$42 +77%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 09 $113 +$3 +3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 28 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 27 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 27 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $32 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 23 $302 −$160 -53%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 12 $488 −$60 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 08 $110 −$8 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 08 $224 +$8 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April? Apr 07 $78 +$10 +13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $12 −$3 -23%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $329 +$22 +7%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 Mar 27 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Magic (-11.5) Mar 27 $6 +$3 +43%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Mar 27 $8 +$2 +33%
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 228.5 Mar 27 $15 +$5 +31%
Spread: Magic (-17.5) Mar 27 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5 Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 21? Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-5.5) Mar 26 $4 +$1 +19%
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 26 $13 +$7 +54%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Mar 26 $18 +$12 +65%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Mar 26 $34 −$33 -97%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $7 +$3 +37%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Mar 25 $10 +$10 +92%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $20 +$6 +27%
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5 Mar 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Mar 25 $12 +$8 +70%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $22 +$8 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $17 +$2 +14%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Mar 25 $5 +$4 +77%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) Mar 25 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29? Mar 24 $76 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Mar 22 $1,480 −$10 -1%
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5) Mar 22 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 22 $868 −$10 -1%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 Mar 22 $500 $0 +0%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 146.5 Mar 21 $176 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $50 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 55¢ $40 12d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 12d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $185 23d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $93 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $100 24d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $1 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $28 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $8 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $8 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $9 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $4 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $5 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $11 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 58d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL Yes 14¢ $84 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY Yes 14¢ $84 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $34 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $14 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $2 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $45 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $33 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 54¢ $13 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 54¢ $42 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.46 · official $215.46 (match) · 1293 history records