Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x3482…98e3 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,569 (-21%) realized −$4,462 · open −$107
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$73
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,175
other 3% −$325
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.3% -4.7% 17% 17% +0.1%
≤30d 7 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 14% -22.3%
≤90d 7 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 14% -22.3%
all 111 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 28% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 28% -29.7%
10% -21.2% 26% -36.5%
15% -28.9% 25% -42.6%
20% -35.8% 23% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$128 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$4,462
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 79
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage234d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ $150 $46 −$104 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$10 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $205 −$54 -26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $98 +$264 +269%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $464 −$464 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Feb 02 $100 −$60 -60%
Jazz vs. Raptors Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $100 +$335 +335%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $100 −$78 -78%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 01 $100 −$78 -78%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $500 −$255 -51%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $25 +$141 +566%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 19 $71 −$21 -30%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 19 $80 +$53 +66%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 19 $1,500 −$417 -28%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $300 −$205 -68%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $1,067 +$1,377 +129%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $648 −$27 -4%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $100 +$96 +96%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $257 −$209 -81%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 13 $100 −$29 -29%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $50 +$148 +296%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $50 −$38 -76%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $400 +$255 +64%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $149 −$121 -81%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $50 +$111 +222%
Bucks vs. Nuggets Jan 12 $52 +$115 +222%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $50 +$116 +233%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 12 $50 −$15 -30%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $400 +$47 +12%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $380 −$30 -8%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $15 −$3 -22%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 11 $50 −$38 -75%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $60 −$1 -2%
Clippers vs. Knicks Jan 08 $60 −$56 -94%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $60 −$45 -76%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jan 08 $60 +$216 +360%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $165 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $166 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $187 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $26 28h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $141 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 50¢ $361 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 12¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $47 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $51 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 48¢ $203 8d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $464 128d
Lakers vs. Knicks BUY Lakers 29¢ $100 135d
Nets vs. Pistons SELL Nets $40 135d
Jazz vs. Raptors BUY Jazz 20¢ $100 135d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Nets 15¢ $100 135d
Mavericks vs. Rockets SELL Mavericks $22 136d
Hawks vs. Pacers SELL Hawks $22 136d
Bulls vs. Heat BUY Bulls 23¢ $100 136d
Mavericks vs. Rockets BUY Mavericks 23¢ $100 136d
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Hawks 36¢ $100 136d
Rams vs. Seahawks SELL Rams $79 142d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 26¢ $300 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.56 · official $94.56 (match) · 317 history records