Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x347c…6b1f
other · 21 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$8,692 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,781 · open +$891
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9,196
Realized+$7,781
Unrealized+$891
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5,200
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 5 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days+$2,264
14 days+$4,720
30 days+$6,826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 75¢ 100¢ $2,491 $3,341 +$849 (+34%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $2,781 $2,734 −$47 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,642 $1,738 +$96 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $920 $883 −$36 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $470 $500 +$30 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $894 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,212 +$194 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5,558 +$219 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,065 +$66 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $18,244 +$1,750 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14,856 +$1,506 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $11,959 +$950 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $11,221 +$984 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9,470 +$268 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10,512 +$853 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $5,448 +$503 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5,435 +$211 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $2,784 +$240 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$8,671
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $896 51m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $318 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $409 53m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $148 53m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 53m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,004 54m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $180 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $550 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $500 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $79 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $117 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $76 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $106 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $106 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $106 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $66 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $206 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $80 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $213 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $119 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $385 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.9% -17.6% 86% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 0% -2.4%
≤90d 16 -0.0% -9.5% 94% 0% -2.5%
all 16 -0.0% -9.5% 94% 0% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -11.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -20.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,195.91 · official $8,697.23 · 602 history records