Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x347b…c9bc weather 679 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,367 (+3%) realized +$2,283 · open −$916
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate88%527W / 72L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day272.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$412
7 days−$234
14 days+$727
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$418
world 20% −$644
other 7% −$126
politics 3% +$300
economics 3% −$97
finance 1% −$62
crypto 0% +$24
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 41% -10.8%
≤30d 599 +9.1% -1.3% 88% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 599 +9.1% -1.3% 88% 41% -7.5%
all 599 +9.1% -1.3% 88% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 41% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 13% -16.3%
15% -19.3% 5% -24.4%
20% -27.3% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$41 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$9,037
Realized+$2,283
Unrealized−$916
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses527 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions202
Markets (closed)599 / 679
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day272.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 202 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,761 $1,594 −$167 (-9%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,077 $982 −$94 (-9%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $310 $410 +$100 (+32%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $396 $396 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $374 $359 −$15 (-4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $356 $351 −$5 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $238 $257 +$19 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $190 $204 +$14 (+7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $199 $163 −$36 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 6¢ 6¢ $118 $124 +$6 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 4¢ $76 $111 +$35 (+46%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $71 $95 +$24 (+34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+2%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 87¢ 93¢ $66 $71 +$4 (+6%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 98¢ 97¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? No 87¢ 84¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $260 $56 −$204 (-78%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $47 $56 +$9 (+20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $126 $54 −$72 (-57%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+12%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 87¢ 94¢ $44 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 86¢ 93¢ $43 $46 +$4 (+8%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No 81¢ 92¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $76 −$46 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $66 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$10 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$7 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$14 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$7 +20%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $30 −$12 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$13 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$16 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$11 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$13 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$16 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $64 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 14m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 14m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 14m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 18m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $85 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $74 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 26m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $119 26m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $252 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $3 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,036.75 · official $9,070.64 (match) · 3500 history records