Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3477…eb63 crypto 1272 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$21 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate88%1117W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day158.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$90
14 days−$587
30 days−$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$576
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$16
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 -9.2% -17.8% 74% 20% -13.4%
≤30d 1269 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 8% -11.4%
≤90d 1269 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 8% -11.4%
all 1269 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 8% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 8% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 2% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 1% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1117 / 152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1269 / 1272
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+84%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.06 · official $5.11 (match) · 3500 history records