Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3477…aafd crypto 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (898 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate74%410W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day898.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (898 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 556 -6.9% -15.7% 74% 8% -11.2%
≤30d 556 -6.9% -15.7% 74% 8% -11.2%
≤90d 556 -6.9% -15.7% 74% 8% -11.2%
all 556 -6.9% -15.7% 74% 8% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover898.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 8% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -19.7%
15% -31.2% 2% -27.4%
20% -37.9% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses410 / 146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)556 / 556
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day898.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 556 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$22 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2663 history records