Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3477…3d1f crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-10%) realized −$694 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$395
14 days−$694
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -30.9% -37.5% 44% 42% -27.1%
≤30d 70 -34.4% -40.7% 37% 36% -29.8%
≤90d 70 -34.4% -40.7% 37% 36% -29.8%
all 70 -34.4% -40.7% 37% 36% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 36% -29.8%
10% -46.4% 31% -36.5%
15% -51.5% 20% -42.6%
20% -56.3% 19% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$33 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$694
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage11d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$87 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$14 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$9 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$23 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$17 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$16 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$9 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$36 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $140 −$135 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $153 −$148 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $28 −$27 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $42 +$38 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $57 −$12 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $75 +$20 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $229 +$103 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$17 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $34 +$78 +232%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $42 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$27 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $155 +$45 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $73 −$27 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$8 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $185 +$33 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$55 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $48 −$47 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $43 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$27 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$42 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$60 +204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $25 −$24 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $34 −$33 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $82 −$16 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $45 −$43 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$28 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$26 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$19 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $73 +$23 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $19 −$18 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $95 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $15 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $39 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $64 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $65 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $39 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $39 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $14 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $14 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $31 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $31 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $24 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $24 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $3.63 · 164 history records