Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3476…cdeb other 27 markets active 1d ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 33% $0
sports 11% +$18
culture 7% $0
tech 6% +$1
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 11% -10.2%
≤30d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 10% -10.3%
≤90d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 10% -10.3%
all 27 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 11% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 11% -7.6%
10% -18.0% 7% -16.4%
15% -25.9% 7% -24.5%
20% -33.2% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage477d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $89 −$4 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$2 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $2 $0 -12%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Los Angeles by Friday? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $3 +$1 +42%
Dayton vs. Rhode Island Feb 28 $31 +$18 +56%
Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parlia Feb 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records