Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3473…e864 crypto 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$375 (+4%) realized +$388 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%119W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day153.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$113
14 days+$27
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$174
weather 3% −$145
sports 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -12.2% -20.6% 37% 30% -8.5%
≤30d 326 -13.2% -21.5% 37% 30% -9.3%
≤90d 326 -13.2% -21.5% 37% 30% -9.3%
all 326 -13.2% -21.5% 37% 30% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 30% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 24% -18.0%
15% -35.8% 20% -25.9%
20% -42.1% 18% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses119 / 207
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)326 / 329
History coverage17d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day153.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 58¢ 58¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 47¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 29¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$32 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$22 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$14 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$9 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$3 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $135 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $199 −$64 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $219 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $117 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $203 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $130 −$22 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $108 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $91 −$27 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$269 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $91 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$21 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $127 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$91 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.11 · official $55.41 · 2895 history records