Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x3471…a9d4 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,842 (-16%) realized −$13,270 · open −$572
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,620per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,181
7 days−$12,656
14 days−$11,916
30 days−$11,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$10,230
economics 8% −$3,032
finance 8% −$2
tech 3% −$581
politics 2% −$79
other 1% −$551
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 17% -47.6%
≤30d 28 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 29% -25.9%
≤90d 45 -7.4% -16.3% 56% 36% -25.6%
all 45 -7.4% -16.3% 56% 36% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 36% -25.6%
10% -24.3% 27% -32.7%
15% -31.6% 13% -39.2%
20% -38.3% 11% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,586) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$1,089 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2,468
Realized−$13,270
Unrealized−$572
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,620
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 72¢ $3,000 $2,432 −$568 (-19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,700 −$211 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4,001 +$102 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5,868 −$2,517 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13,771 −$10,555 -77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,000 +$485 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2,757 +$40 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $2,286 +$518 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $2,800 +$130 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $304 −$256 -84%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1,500 +$368 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $991 +$809 +82%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,000 +$72 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,978 +$1,162 +29%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,795 +$263 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $4,969 +$327 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,292 +$240 +19%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 26 $94 −$26 -28%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $500 +$61 +12%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $376 +$20 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $855 −$855 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 24 $857 −$857 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 24 $127 +$145 +114%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $1,300 +$128 +10%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $308 −$269 -88%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 22 $2,881 −$289 -10%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $519 −$49 -10%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $4,341 −$4,238 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 15 $500 +$49 +10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,586 +$1,206 +47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 15 $959 +$104 +11%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,000 −$98 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 May 01 $100 −$11 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $70 +$24 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $500 +$343 +69%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $500 +$68 +14%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $3,077 −$940 -31%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Apr 23 $764 −$73 -10%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Apr 23 $216 −$177 -82%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Apr 23 $327 −$170 -52%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,000 −$161 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,135 +$993 +88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$149 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$54 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $1,291 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $198 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $455 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $274 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $3,216 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2,134 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2,000 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $217 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $268 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,629 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $534 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,485 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $56 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,700 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $3,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $2,234 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $563 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2,804 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,804 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $47 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,940 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,930 11d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,467.62 · official $2,467.62 (match) · 176 history records