Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x346d…7d91
sports · 10 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$10
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$13 -41%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$13 +123%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$10 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$24
other 41% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 26m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 48m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 48m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 56m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 56m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes $1 1h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes $1 1h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $8 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 14h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 16h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 17h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.1% -30.4% 33% 11% -31.2%
≤30d 9 -23.1% -30.4% 33% 11% -31.2%
≤90d 9 -23.1% -30.4% 33% 11% -31.2%
all 9 -23.1% -30.4% 33% 11% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 11% -31.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 11% -37.8%
15% -43.1% 11% -43.8%
20% -48.7% 11% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.46 · official $10.46 (match) · 29 history records