Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x346a…f5b2
crypto · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$60 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$44
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage514d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes $27 $17 −$10 (-36%)
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? 150k 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Yes 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Yes 29¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? May 08 $3 −$1 -40%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Feb 23 $3 $0 -14%
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 14 $2 $0 -9%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Feb 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 16 $2 $0 -4%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jan 16 $1 $0 -39%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +15%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will a country leave BRICS before 2026? Oct 31 $17 −$11 -65%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 31 $8 −$6 -79%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Oct 31 $5 −$4 -80%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Aug 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Aug 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? Aug 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Aug 13 $1 $0 -14%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"? Aug 06 $1 $0 -22%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Aug 06 $1 $0 -13%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 Aug 06 $2 $0 -22%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 04 $5 +$3 +66%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 04 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? Aug 02 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on July 26? Jul 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 26? Jul 26 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on July 25? Jul 26 $1 $0 +25%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jul 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jul 25 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7AM ET Jul 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6AM ET Jul 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jul 20 $1 −$1 -86%
XRP Up or Down - July 20, 5AM ET Jul 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31? Jul 20 $1 $0 -3%
XRP all time high before October? Jul 19 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Jul 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Trump bans China from buying US farmland? Jul 13 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June? Jul 13 $1 $0 +15%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jul 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Mar 21 $7 −$6 -90%
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? Mar 21 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Jan 26 $1 $0 -35%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 26 $1 $0 -7%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jan 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 25 $1 +$2 +152%
US recession in 2025? Jan 24 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% −$24
other 24% −$28
world 18% −$8
politics 7% −$1
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 25d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 35d
Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 35d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 37d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 37d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 37d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 104d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 104d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 108d
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 108d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 108d
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 110d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 110d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 119d
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 119d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -97.3%
≤30d 1 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -97.3%
≤90d 2 -68.3% -71.3% 0% 0% -65.4%
all 55 -22.4% -29.8% 31% 27% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 27% -41.8%
10% -36.5% 20% -47.4%
15% -42.7% 13% -52.5%
20% -48.3% 11% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.63 · official $43.63 (match) · 182 history records