Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x346a…81bb other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$34 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%47W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$37
14 days+$43
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$27
world 18% +$10
politics 14% +$23
tech 10% −$16
sports 5% +$16
economics 3% −$3
finance 3% +$9
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +70.6% +54.3% 56% 40% +5.0%
≤30d 98 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 35% -1.8%
≤90d 98 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 35% -1.8%
all 98 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 35% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.7% 35% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here +10.9% 29% -11.2%
15% +0.2% 19% -19.8%
20% -9.6% 14% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses47 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions77
Markets (closed)98 / 175
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 23¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+188%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 88¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+107%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 68¢ 87¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+64%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 31¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 65¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 61¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +228%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +256%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +78%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +344%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -51%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 12 $1 +$8 +813%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $7 +$15 +204%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +380%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1506%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $4 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 6h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 7h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 9h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 9h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 30¢ $2 12h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $3 16h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.97 · official $187.09 (match) · 537 history records