Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3467…ce28 crypto 41 markets active 6d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%35W / 5L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$73
sports 5% −$1
politics 5% −$1
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -0.1% -9.6% 88% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$518) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.0 per $1 lost it wins $16.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses35 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage146d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 21? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 1? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 28? Jan 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 23? Jan 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 22 Jan 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 19 Jan 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? Jan 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 19 Jan 19 $536 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 18? Jan 19 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $928 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 18 Jan 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 18? Jan 18 $518 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $1,617 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 17 Jan 18 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 17 Jan 17 $1,115 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $574 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 Jan 17 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 17? Jan 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $2,240 +$14 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 74d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 108d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $14 113d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 SELL No 84¢ $13 127d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $16 127d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 SELL No 100¢ $16 127d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $16 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $16 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 132d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 137d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $20 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 145d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 22 BUY No 100¢ $31 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 19 BUY No 100¢ $31 149d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $524 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? SELL No 100¢ $16 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.95 · official $31.95 (match) · 212 history records