Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3465…7082
other · 70 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$631 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$482 · open −$183
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,811
Realized+$482
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses45 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)62 / 70
History coverage281d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 8 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $2,968 $3,085 +$117 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,882 $1,897 +$15 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,613 $1,640 +$27 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $247 $94 −$153 (-62%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+14%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 30¢ 60¢ $12 $25 +$12 (+99%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$208 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? No 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-6.5) vs. USA (+6.5) gold medals? Norway 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? No 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $107 +$35 +32%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 07 $957 +$7 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $977 +$21 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $8,032 +$200 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 30 $162 +$24 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $100 +$32 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $152 +$44 +29%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $514 +$37 +7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $618 +$31 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $479 +$134 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $4 $0 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 14 $120 +$99 +82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Apr 11 $151 −$8 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 08 $230 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 24 $356 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 24 $367 +$6 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 23 $58 +$25 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $135 +$42 +31%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be bet Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Mar 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 08 $55 +$16 +30%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $501 +$10 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $234 +$6 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $59 +$1 +2%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 24 $65 −$28 -44%
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Wo Feb 23 $167 +$13 +8%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 22 $40 −$1 -4%
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-6.5) vs. USA (+6.5) gold medals? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Feb 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Te Feb 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? Feb 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the Feb 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Luca Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's Feb 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Tormod Frostad (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's a Feb 18 $153 +$7 +4%
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Me Feb 17 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 Feb 16 $253 +$7 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $53 +$19 +35%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most gold medals at the 2026 Feb 11 $7 +$5 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% +$633
other 16% −$14
finance 10% +$15
politics 5% −$21
culture 1% −$32
tech 1% +$27
sports 1% −$248
economics 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,701 16m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 44m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $73 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $50 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 23h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 91¢ $102 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $186 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $1,395 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 90¢ $25 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $7 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $370 3d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $328 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $372 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $43 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $467 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $139 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $9 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $117 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $277 3d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $116 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.4% -29.7% 67% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 10 +5.0% -5.0% 90% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 26 +3.8% -6.1% 81% 38% -6.0%
all 62 -4.1% -13.3% 73% 32% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -7.1%
10% -21.6% 27% -16.0%
15% -29.1% 13% -24.1%
20% -36.1% 8% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,811.28 · official $6,811.28 (match) · 427 history records