Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3460…7f71
crypto · 721 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$930 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$932 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized+$932
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses568 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)756 / 721
History coverage25d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 756 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$431
7 days+$568
14 days+$829
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $953 +$44 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $220 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $185 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $212 −$66 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $396 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $291 −$21 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $582 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $211 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $237 +$27 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $164 −$58 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $131 +$19 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,661
politics 0% +$2
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $81 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $81 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -13.9% -22.1% 69% 28% -8.8%
≤30d 756 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 34% -8.8%
≤90d 756 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 34% -8.8%
all 756 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 34% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 16% -17.6%
15% -29.8% 10% -25.5%
20% -36.7% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.10 · official $103.10 (match) · 3500 history records