Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x345e…8fa6 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,110 (-15%) realized −$2,110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%43W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,562
other 20% −$596
weather 6% +$24
crypto 2% +$8
economics 2% −$30
world 1% +$7
politics 1% +$35
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 -23.5% -30.8% 75% 0% -11.0%
all 63 +9.5% -0.9% 68% 41% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 41% -23.2%
10% -10.4% 35% -30.5%
15% -19.1% 30% -37.2%
20% -27.0% 22% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$326 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$2,110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses43 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage549d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 20 $70 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 21 $83 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 31 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $36 +$4 +12%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Feb 23 $68 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Mavericks Dec 12 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Dec 12 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $800 +$1,700 +212%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December Dec 11 $776 +$24 +3%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 11 $9 +$36 +376%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $68 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 11 $256 +$144 +56%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 11 $544 +$256 +47%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 11 $15 +$45 +290%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 09 $54 +$181 +335%
Giants vs. Saints Oct 02 $276 −$276 -100%
Cowboys vs. Jets Oct 02 $674 −$674 -100%
49ers vs. Rams Oct 02 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? Oct 02 $801 +$99 +12%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 02 $935 +$765 +82%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $825 −$825 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $12 +$3 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 01 $43 +$2 +5%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 01 $496 +$304 +61%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $390 +$610 +156%
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Oct 01 $1,316 +$84 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $23 +$2 +8%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on September 8? Sep 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum above $4200 on September 8? Sep 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 3? Sep 07 $41 +$17 +43%
Ethereum above $4200 on September 3? Sep 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above $4600 on August 25? Sep 01 $22 +$8 +37%
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31? Sep 01 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 25? Sep 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? Aug 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 13? Aug 25 $38 +$9 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? Aug 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 1? Aug 04 $38 +$17 +45%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on July 28? Jul 31 $46 +$4 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? Apr 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $20 +$7 +32%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $10 +$5 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $70 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $9 70d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 81d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 81d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $10 107d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $78 117d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 144d
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $68 165d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Nets vs. Mavericks BUY Nets 27¢ $378 190d
Nets vs. Mavericks BUY Nets 27¢ $810 190d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 71¢ $1,100 190d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers BUY Falcons 32¢ $640 191d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers BUY Falcons 32¢ $160 191d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 64¢ $256 193d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 68¢ $544 193d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December BUY No 97¢ $291 193d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December BUY No 97¢ $485 193d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $68 221d
Giants vs. Saints BUY Giants 46¢ $138 261d
Giants vs. Saints BUY Giants 46¢ $138 261d
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 45¢ $625 261d
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 44¢ $5 261d
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 44¢ $2 261d
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 44¢ $10 261d
Cowboys vs. Jets BUY Jets 44¢ $32 261d
Patriots vs. Bills BUY Patriots 23¢ $54 261d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 80¢ $1,600 261d
Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $801 262d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.83 · official $46.83 (match) · 126 history records