Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x3458…b5a7 sports 1526 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,306 (+5%) realized +$15,585 · open −$2,279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%1077W / 357L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$988est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$14,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$111
world 11% +$4,062
other 8% −$1,518
politics 5% −$1,045
finance 4% −$1,945
weather 3% +$48
tech 1% +$313
economics 0% +$120
crypto 0% −$45
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.8% -18.3% 71% 41% -8.7%
≤30d 119 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 39% -14.9%
≤90d 1383 -6.9% -15.8% 74% 47% -9.6%
all 1434 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 48% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 30% -17.5%
15% -30.2% 19% -25.5%
20% -37.1% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$102 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$14,218
Realized+$15,585
Unrealized−$2,279
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1077 / 357
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$988
Open positions108
Markets (closed)1434 / 1526
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$183
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 1434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 62¢ $2,500 $1,746 −$754 (-30%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 80¢ $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $600 $703 +$103 (+17%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $500 $526 +$26 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 74¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 98¢ $320 $438 +$118 (+37%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 92¢ 92¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 24? No 95¢ 95¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 55¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $300 $274 −$26 (-9%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 97¢ $223 $258 +$35 (+16%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 82¢ 69¢ $300 $255 −$45 (-15%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 44¢ 99¢ $110 $249 +$139 (+126%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 99¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 88¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 24? No 88¢ 91¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $100 $186 +$86 (+86%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $120 $132 +$12 (+10%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 60¢ 78¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 38¢ 25¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 240 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $111 −$110 -99%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 23 $603 −$8 -1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $402 +$101 +25%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
ITF Bakio: Matt Ponchet vs Robin Bertrand Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$54 +54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $500 +$38 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $102 +$237 +232%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $502 −$500 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $200 +$43 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 07 $101 +$11 +11%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $505 −$500 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $100 +$11 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $544 −$540 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $101 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY University War 57¢ $101 44m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $101 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $101 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $116 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 24? BUY No 85¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $301 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $301 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $579 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $500 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $102 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $10 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 78¢ $10 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY University War 63¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $100 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 80¢ $302 8h
ITF Bakio: Matt Ponchet vs Robin Bertrand BUY Robin Bertrand 82¢ $10 8h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 83¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 78¢ $101 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 78¢ $101 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 21h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,218.23 · official $14,228.94 (match) · 3500 history records