Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x3453…8524 sports 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$515 (+3%) realized −$234 · open +$749
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%120W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$726
14 days+$370
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,207
other 5% +$38
weather 1% −$30
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +5.5% -4.6% 53% 48% -4.5%
≤30d 232 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 47% -6.6%
≤90d 232 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 47% -6.6%
all 232 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 47% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 47% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -15.5%
15% -23.2% 39% -23.7%
20% -30.7% 33% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$57 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,970
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$749
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses120 / 112
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions27
Markets (closed)232 / 259
History coverage18d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 100¢ $450 $985 +$535 (+119%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $300 $619 +$319 (+106%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $200 $334 +$134 (+67%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 60¢ $150 $198 +$48 (+32%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 18¢ $150 $112 −$38 (-25%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) DR Congo 32¢ 9¢ $210 $58 −$152 (-73%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Over 22¢ 13¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-39%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 51¢ 72¢ $32 $46 +$14 (+43%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 85¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+53%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 4¢ $60 $24 −$36 (-60%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+92%)
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" 20+ times during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 1 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 0 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 0 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 1 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $149 +$17 +11%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $456 +$348 +76%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 27 $210 +$87 +42%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $149 −$146 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $5 +$2 +49%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $5 +$3 +61%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $459 −$450 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $11 +$5 +49%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $456 −$450 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $458 −$450 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 26 $7 +$2 +30%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $304 +$296 +97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $38 +$29 +76%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7 +$4 +52%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $20 +$12 +61%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "One Nation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Christmas" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $380 +$368 +97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 +$13 +88%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $14 −$8 -61%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $14 +$14 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 −$37 -91%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $44 −$14 -32%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $27 +$4 +16%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $307 +$470 +153%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7 +$5 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $455 +$304 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $14 +$13 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $168 +$267 +159%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $7 +$5 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8 31m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 58¢ $2 52m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 58¢ $1 52m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 52m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 5¢ $14 52m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 90¢ $90 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 90¢ $27 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 90¢ $32 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $30 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $92 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $61 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $152 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $62 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 30¢ $149 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 30¢ $1 4h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 70¢ $1 4h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 70¢ $100 4h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 71¢ $75 4h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 70¢ $9 4h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 70¢ $26 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 30¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 30¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,969.65 · official $2,969.65 (match) · 703 history records