Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x3451…a6e1 sports 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,362 (+48%) realized +$5,702 · open +$2,660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%82W / 60L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days+$2,418
14 days+$2,916
30 days+$2,560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$4,189
other 24% +$2,241
crypto 1% −$29
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +273.8% +238.2% 61% 61% +51.7%
≤30d 115 +89.1% +71.1% 53% 51% +22.3%
≤90d 142 +82.2% +64.8% 58% 52% +19.3%
all 142 +82.2% +64.8% 58% 52% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.8% 52% +19.3%
10% ← realistic here +49.0% 50% +7.9%
15% +34.6% 47% -2.5%
20% +21.4% 42% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +141% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$58 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$5,666
Realized+$5,702
Unrealized+$2,660
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses82 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions98
Markets (closed)142 / 240
History coverage47d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 5¢ 20¢ $208 $852 +$644 (+310%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 24¢ 27¢ $661 $756 +$95 (+14%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ 42¢ $497 $524 +$27 (+5%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 100¢ $152 $400 +$248 (+163%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 25¢ 32¢ $280 $354 +$74 (+26%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 13¢ 28¢ $109 $229 +$119 (+109%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 48¢ 60¢ $175 $219 +$44 (+25%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians No 12¢ 36¢ $56 $168 +$112 (+200%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 25¢ 50¢ $75 $152 +$76 (+102%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 36¢ 52¢ $103 $148 +$45 (+44%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 1¢ 36¢ $4 $146 +$142 (+3500%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 15¢ 60¢ $33 $133 +$100 (+298%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 11¢ 48¢ $30 $130 +$101 (+339%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 43¢ 49¢ $110 $126 +$15 (+14%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 6¢ 28¢ $22 $115 +$93 (+415%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 30¢ 59¢ $55 $108 +$53 (+96%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $66 $100 +$34 (+51%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 Over 13¢ 48¢ $21 $79 +$58 (+276%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 17¢ 35¢ $36 $76 +$40 (+110%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 1¢ 25¢ $2 $62 +$60 (+2400%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 6¢ 48¢ $7 $53 +$46 (+669%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 1¢ 31¢ $2 $52 +$51 (+3000%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 32¢ 48¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+50%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ 42¢ $35 $42 +$6 (+17%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Over 1¢ 55¢ $1 $41 +$40 (+5400%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $99 −$99 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $73 +$127 +172%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 +$2 +4756%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $98 +$102 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $26 +$319 +1215%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $324 +$282 +87%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $150 +$360 +240%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 24 $0 +$12 +2912%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 24 $134 +$379 +283%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $45 +$491 +1092%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $4 +$58 +1409%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $446 +$263 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $144 −$144 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$27 +76%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $33 +$67 +206%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 22 $801 +$277 +35%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $64 +$132 +206%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $99 +$101 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $365 −$133 -36%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $90 +$108 +120%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 21 $72 +$50 +69%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $100 +$319 +318%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $69 +$121 +174%
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +180%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 18 $43 +$41 +94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $1 +$8 +632%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $22 +$49 +222%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +39%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 17 $8 +$4 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$17 +84%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $633 +$289 +46%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $60 +$40 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 85¢ $4 18m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $110 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 36¢ $73 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 5h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $38 5h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $22 5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 9h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 17¢ $1 9h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) SELL Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $2 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $2 9h
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 15h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 17h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 17h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 17h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 17h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 18h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 18h
St. Louis Cardinals winning after 5 innings? BUY No 1¢ $0 19h
Arizona Diamondbacks winning after 5 innings? BUY No 1¢ $0 19h
Chicago White Sox winning after 5 innings? BUY No 1¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves winning after 5 innings? BUY No 1¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: Tied after 5 innings? BUY No 1¢ $0 19h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 19h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 3¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,666.39 · official $5,708.98 (match) · 1271 history records