Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3450…9305 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized −$1 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2
politics 11% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 25% 0% -12.1%
all 4 -2.5% -11.8% 25% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -12.1%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage18d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 −$3 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $4 38m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 38m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $4 40m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 71¢ $4 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $4 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $2 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $4 44m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 44m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $4 44m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 44m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $4 45m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 46m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $4 51m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 52m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $4 57m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $4 59m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 35¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $0 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 9¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.56 · official $12.56 (match) · 50 history records