Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x344c…37a6 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$7
sports 25% −$4
other 22% −$1
world 8% −$2
crypto 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 61 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage198d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $275 −$3 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $275 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $277 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $276 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 14 $275 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $553 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $277 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $276 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $276 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 09 $276 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $277 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $277 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $277 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $277 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 28 $277 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $278 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $277 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $277 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $278 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $278 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $280 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $282 −$2 -1%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $282 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $269 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 31 $273 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $270 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Dec 21 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 15 $273 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $272 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $275 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $275 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $275 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $275 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $276 23d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 31d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $277 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $276 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $276 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $203 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $70 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 36d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 39d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 46d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 46d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 46d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 46d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $277 62d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 62d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records