Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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34 0x344a…b394 crypto 377 markets active 4h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,242 (+2%) realized +$1,242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%243W / 133L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day140.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,039
7 days−$2,016
14 days−$2,090
30 days+$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$651
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 42% -16.7%
≤30d 376 +10.2% -0.3% 65% 55% -8.4%
≤90d 376 +10.2% -0.3% 65% 55% -8.4%
all 376 +10.2% -0.3% 65% 55% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 55% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 44% -17.2%
15% -18.6% 36% -25.2%
20% -26.5% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$82 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$1,242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses243 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)376 / 377
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$148
Trades / day140.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$50 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$25 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $198 −$192 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$40 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $331 +$185 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$26 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $174 −$167 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$78 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $343 +$147 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$73 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $68 +$44 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $600 +$64 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $350 −$280 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $175 +$87 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $110 +$90 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $420 +$150 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $225 +$203 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $144 −$137 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $441 −$441 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $350 +$281 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $69 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.09 · official $20.09 (match) · 3500 history records