Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3444…9e11 crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-8%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%311W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$19
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$125
other 8% −$134
sports 7% −$358
finance 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 171 -0.9% -10.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 332 -7.6% -16.4% 91% 0% -26.3%
all 342 -2.5% -11.8% 91% 3% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -16.5%
10% -20.3% 3% -24.5%
15% -28.0% 3% -31.8%
20% -35.0% 3% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$47 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses311 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage231d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 98¢ $50 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $12 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.00 · 2181 history records