Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3443…6474 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate98%124W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$44
weather 17% +$3
other 13% −$16
tech 8% +$9
world 5% +$9
economics 2% +$2
politics 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.8% -5.1% 100% 10% -8.1%
≤30d 48 -2.1% -11.5% 96% 6% -14.4%
≤90d 93 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 9% -11.5%
all 127 +3.8% -6.1% 98% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 13% -10.4%
10% -15.1% 9% -19.0%
15% -23.3% 6% -26.8%
20% -30.8% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses124 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage166d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 28 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 33°F or below on May 21? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.09 · official $47.09 (match) · 290 history records