Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x343f…6df2 world 100 markets active 3d ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29,793 (+4%) realized +$29,793 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate89%89W / 11L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$7,158per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$64
14 days+$221
30 days+$13,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$4,340
other 28% −$1,868
crypto 27% +$29,540
economics 3% +$119
tech 3% +$23
politics 2% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +5.5% -4.6% 100% 25% -5.2%
≤90d 49 +19.0% +7.7% 98% 14% -6.3%
all 100 +8.1% -2.2% 89% 13% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 13% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 7% -14.5%
15% -20.1% 7% -22.7%
20% -27.9% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$12,953) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$392 vs −$280 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×13.82 per $1 lost it wins $13.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29,793
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses89 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage201d
Avg bet$7,158
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $28,430 +$28 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,791 +$6 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10,000 +$10 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $19,314 +$19 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28,370 +$28 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28,971 +$29 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $9,476 +$79 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $22,121 +$258 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $17,982 +$18 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5,720 +$280 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $12,187 +$1,407 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41,210 +$7,031 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10,550 +$3,998 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $15,549 +$1,020 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $129 +$463 +358%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $2 +$5 +257%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,691 +$9 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,992 +$8 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $999 +$2,001 +200%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $8,980 +$20 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $3,487 +$13 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $12,253 +$134 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $14,866 +$22 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $6,967 +$33 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $9,267 +$303 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $6,971 +$29 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $6,993 +$7 +0%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $2,997 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $5,471 +$29 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $8,914 +$86 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $15,272 +$100 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 21 $248 +$1 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? Apr 21 $843 +$6 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $14,153 +$31 +0%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 15 $2,906 +$61 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $12,987 +$13 +0%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 10 $191 +$9 +5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $12,953 +$47 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $13,925 +$75 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $1,898 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $10,956 +$44 +0%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $440 +$5 +1%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $8,475 +$125 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $13,750 +$23 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 24-30? Mar 31 $549 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $10,000 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $10,000 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $8,430 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $444 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,600 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,363 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2155 history records