Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x3439…3e45 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-39%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
crypto 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% -57.4%
≤30d 3 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% -57.4%
≤90d 3 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% -57.4%
all 3 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% -57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 67% -57.4%
10% -9.8% 67% -61.5%
15% -18.5% 67% -65.2%
20% -26.5% 67% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 45¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.61 · official $3.61 (match) · 9 history records