Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x3434…fca6 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 29% +$2
politics 7% $0
sports 5% +$14
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 64% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 64% 9% -8.7%
all 33 +16.7% +5.6% 67% 9% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 9% -7.5%
10% -4.5% 9% -16.4%
15% -13.7% 9% -24.5%
20% -22.2% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage475d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $4 +$2 +37%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $47 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $2 +$4 +178%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $26 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $1 $0 +10%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? Mar 31 $1 $0 -42%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $30 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +10%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 20 $27 −$4 -17%
Albany vs. UMBC Mar 20 $14 +$14 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $33 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $12 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.33 · official $51.38 (match) · 119 history records