trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 56% | 33% | +17.8% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 56% | 33% | +17.8% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 56% | 33% | +17.8% |
| all | 18 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 56% | 33% | +17.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +2.5% | 33% | +17.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -7.3% | 28% | +6.5% |
| 15% | -16.3% | 22% | -3.8% |
| 20% | -24.5% | 17% | -13.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $38 | −$12 (-25%) |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 43¢ | 36¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 86¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 17¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-36%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 36¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-53%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 44¢ | 20¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-53%) |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 8¢ | $6 | $1 | −$5 (-82%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 6¢ | $8 | $1 | −$7 (-87%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 20¢ | 1¢ | $23 | $1 | −$22 (-97%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | Yes | 42¢ | 4¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-89%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$8 | +51% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 14 | $17 | +$36 | +210% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$7 | +44% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $154 | +$36 | +23% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$3 | -51% |
| Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4 | −$1 | -29% |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +63% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $3 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |