Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x3433…aece other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$791 (-11%) realized −$734 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$693
14 days+$548
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$495
sports 30% +$323
crypto 3% +$10
world 3% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +36.1% +23.2% 53% 53% +10.2%
≤30d 64 +24.4% +12.5% 48% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 64 +24.4% +12.5% 48% 48% -13.8%
all 65 +22.5% +10.8% 48% 48% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 48% -15.7%
10% +0.2% 48% -23.8%
15% -9.5% 46% -31.2%
20% -18.4% 38% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$67 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$2,134
Realized−$734
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions20
Markets (closed)65 / 89
History coverage250d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $501 $561 +$60 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $402 $391 −$11 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $400 $274 −$126 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $252 $202 −$50 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $63 $98 +$35 (+55%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $70 $98 +$28 (+39%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $99 $80 −$19 (-19%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 43¢ 86¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+99%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 71¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 +$43 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 +$55 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$40 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$28 +550%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +144%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$28 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$35 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$39 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $325 −$320 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$29 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$31 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$39 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $608 +$448 +74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$23 +65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$43 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$199 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$95 +344%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $90 +$90 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$60 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$57 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 +$157 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY 20¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 42¢ $102 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $50 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $180 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,134.16 · official $2,253.66 · 152 history records