Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3433…4a33 crypto 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%217W / 5L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$44
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$3
other 0% +$2
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 64 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 222 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses217 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage539d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $196 $196 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $192 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $189 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $189 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 05 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $178 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $196 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $195 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $194 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $194 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $192 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $192 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $191 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $190 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $189 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $189 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $190 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $190 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $189 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $189 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $181 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $188 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $187 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $187 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $186 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $185 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $185 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $184 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $184 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $184 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $183 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $183 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $183 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $183 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.78 · official $196.78 (match) · 456 history records