Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x342f…e974 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$22
politics 21% −$14
sports 19% −$6
crypto 8% −$5
finance 7% −$6
economics 5% −$6
world 4% +$2
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 121 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 144 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 129
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage103d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $116 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $66 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $199 −$3 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $240 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $232 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $53 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $181 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $142 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $49 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $61 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $111 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $58 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $55 1h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 2h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $59 9h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $60 13h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 13h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 18h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $63 19h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $63 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $41 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 36h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $47 37h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $47 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $65 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $66 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $36 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $24 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.06 · official $54.06 (match) · 514 history records