Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x342e…1c19 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,040 (-39%) realized −$2,048 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%46W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$514
crypto 30% −$147
sports 29% −$1,314
other 3% −$11
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$47
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -58.8% -62.8% 33% 11% -60.3%
≤90d 9 -58.8% -62.8% 33% 11% -60.3%
all 70 -10.6% -19.1% 66% 29% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 29% -45.3%
10% -26.9% 11% -50.6%
15% -33.9% 4% -55.3%
20% -40.4% 3% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$106 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$2,048
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses46 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage260d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 19 $135 −$133 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 19 $125 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 19 $120 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 19 $113 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 19 $107 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 19 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 19 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 19 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 19 $78 −$42 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 18 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 18 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 17 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 30 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 30 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer Nov 30 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 27 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 26 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 26 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 24 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Nov 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Nov 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 22 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 22 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $12 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $135 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $133 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $125 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $120 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $113 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $30 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $30 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $48 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.91 · official $49.49 (match) · 187 history records