Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x342e…9d2b other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12
politics 29% −$8
sports 12% −$20
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 122 +0.4% -9.2% 9% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage124d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $330 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $217 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $294 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $353 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $199 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $337 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $379 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 11h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $196 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $196 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $174 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $174 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records