Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3429…38ee sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$111 (-14%) realized −$109 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$162
other 16% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -26.2%
≤30d 15 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -26.2%
≤90d 15 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -26.2%
all 15 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 40% -26.2%
10% -37.7% 40% -33.3%
15% -43.7% 40% -39.7%
20% -49.2% 40% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 55¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$53 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$26 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$15 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$38 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $57 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $71 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $45 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $30 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $30 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $56 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $31 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.14 · official $174.14 (match) · 25 history records