Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3423…fe57
other · 286 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,123 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12,559 · open −$95
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,089
Realized−$12,559
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses106 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)245 / 286
History coverage25d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day111.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 37 History 245 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$920
7 days−$5,016
14 days−$11,339
30 days−$12,559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $3,616 $4,310 +$695 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 77¢ 81¢ $52 $54 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 49¢ 95¢ $25 $49 +$23 (+93%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $135 $48 −$87 (-64%)
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? Yes 45¢ 41¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 24¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+207%)
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $207 $1 −$206 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $699 −$281 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $92 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $261 −$111 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $322 −$116 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +71%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $422 +$70 +17%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $360 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $429 −$57 -13%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $383 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $907 +$173 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $701 +$379 +54%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $956 −$510 -53%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $298 +$3 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $671 +$87 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,058 −$96 -5%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,993 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $94 −$75 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $262 −$75 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $356 −$75 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $385 −$82 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $547 −$191 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $887 +$95 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$12,658
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 13m
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 13m
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23m
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24m
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24m
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 24m
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 24m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $207 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $114 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $111 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -31.2% -37.7% 45% 9% -24.2%
≤30d 245 -20.5% -28.0% 43% 9% -18.1%
≤90d 245 -20.5% -28.0% 43% 9% -18.1%
all 245 -20.5% -28.0% 43% 9% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover111.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 9% -18.1%
10% -34.9% 4% -25.9%
15% ← realistic here -41.2% 4% -33.1%
20% -47.0% 3% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,089.34 · official $5,089.35 (match) · 3500 history records